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RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered modest top-line growth and better-than-expected EBITDA, with Portfolio Comparable RevPAR up 1.6% (ADR +2.1%, occupancy -0.5 pts) and Adjusted EBITDA of $77.6M; management cited urban-market strength and conversions as key drivers .
  • Revenue of $328.1M grew 1.1% YoY and modestly beat consensus ($328.1M vs $327.3M); GAAP EPS of -$0.02 was better than consensus (-$0.02 vs -$0.046) as non-operating items and cost control helped the print; the quarter exceeded the prior EBITDA outlook’s high end according to management .
  • Guidance was lowered across key metrics to reflect a softer macro and shorter booking windows: FY Comparable RevPAR growth: -1% to +1% (from +1% to +3%); Comparable Hotel EBITDA: $365.5M–$395.5M (from $378.0M–$408.0M); Adjusted EBITDA: $332.5M–$362.5M (from $345.0M–$375.0M); Adjusted FFO/share: $1.38–$1.58 (from $1.46–$1.66) .
  • Capital allocation and balance sheet actions were supportive: $24.3M of YTD buybacks funded by asset recycling, a new $300M term loan extended maturities to 2030, and all 2025 maturities addressed; liquidity stood at ~$0.85B with $2.2B debt outstanding .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Urban portfolio resilience: Urban RevPAR +3.6% with weekday urban RevPAR +4.9%, aided by return-to-office and strong large events; conversions delivered outsized RevPAR gains (initial six +14%; Nashville +16%; three recent conversions +35%) .
    • Cost control and margins: Hotel operating cost growth moderated to 2.9%; Hotel EBITDA margin only -124 bps YoY despite fewer one-time credits and one less day vs last year .
    • Balance sheet and capital allocation: Term loan upsized to $300M with maturity to 2030, revolver repaid; $24.3M buybacks at $8.91 funded by non-core sale at 18x 2025 Hotel EBITDA .
    • Quote: “Our ability to drive rate in this environment and control costs allowed us to exceed our EBITDA outlook.” — Leslie D. Hale .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Macro-driven demand softness: March RevPAR -1.3% and April prelim -1% to -2%; government and international demand softened, booking windows shortened materially .
    • Guidance reset: FY ranges cut across RevPAR, EBITDA, and FFO/share; midpoint now assumes current headwinds persist through year .
    • Margin compression: Comparable Hotel EBITDA margin declined to 26.1% from 27.3% YoY; comparable Hotel EBITDA down $3.0M YoY (to $85.3M) amid the demand mix and lapping one-time credits .

Financial Results

P&L and Key REIT Metrics

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$345.7 $330.0 $328.1
Comparable Hotel EBITDA ($USD Millions)$100.7 $90.4 $85.3
Comparable Hotel EBITDA Margin (%)29.2% 27.4% 26.1%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$91.9 $81.1 $77.6
Adjusted FFO per Diluted Share ($)$0.40 $0.33 $0.31
GAAP EPS (Diluted, $)$0.09 -$0.01 -$0.02

Operational KPIs (YoY basis)

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
Comparable ADR ($)$200.07 $204.31
Comparable Occupancy (%)69.5% 69.1%
Comparable RevPAR ($)$138.97 $141.23

Segment Revenue Breakdown (Q1)

Category ($USD Thousands)Q1 2024Q1 2025
Room Revenue$266,630 $267,654
Food & Beverage Revenue$35,689 $37,513
Other Revenue$22,091 $22,952
Total Revenues$324,410 $328,119

Actuals vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricConsensusActual# of Estimates
Revenue ($USD)$327,261,650*$328,300,000*8*
GAAP EPS ($)-$0.04616*-$0.0151*5*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Note: Company-reported revenue was $328,119,000 and GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.02 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Comparable RevPAR GrowthFY 2025+1.0% to +3.0% -1.0% to +1.0% Lowered
Comparable Hotel EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$378.0 to $408.0 $365.5 to $395.5 Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$345.0 to $375.0 $332.5 to $362.5 Lowered
Adjusted FFO per Diluted Share ($)FY 2025$1.46 to $1.66 $1.38 to $1.58 Lowered
Net Interest Expense ($M)FY 2025$94.0 to $96.0 $94.0 to $96.0 Maintained
Cash Corporate G&A ($M)FY 2025$34.0 to $35.0 $34.0 to $35.0 Maintained
Capex – Renovations ($M)FY 2025$80.0 to $100.0 $80.0 to $100.0 Maintained
Diluted Shares & Units (M)FY 2025152.5 151.5 Lower (buybacks)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2: Q4 2024; Q-1: Q3 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Macro/Visibility & Booking WindowPositive momentum; reaffirmed FY outlook; noted balanced demand across segments .Visibility reduced; booking window shortened (0–7 days now ~58% vs ~51% historically) .Deteriorating near term
Government & International DemandStrength in urban, broad-based demand .Government (~3% of rev) and international (<3%) soft; cancellations concentrated in Mar/Apr .Softer
Urban Markets & SF/Northern CAUrban outperformance, term loan raised; dividend increased .Urban RevPAR +3.6%; SF momentum from citywide calendar, AI conferences, back-to-office .Improving in SF
Conversions/Capex ExecutionMultiple conversions completed; strong ramp .Strong performance: +14% (initial six), +16% Nashville, +35% in Houston/New Orleans/Pittsburgh .Positive
Tariffs/Supply Chain & FF&EN/A prior explicit detail.FF&E ~40% of renovation costs; diversified to ~10% China (down from ~40% pre-COVID), mitigating tariff risk .Managed risk
Capital Allocation & Balance SheetNew $500M term loan; repaid revolver; dividend up 50% .New $300M term loan, revolver repaid; $24.3M YTD buybacks; $250M repurchase authorization .Proactive/liquidity strong

Management Commentary

  • Strategic positioning: “Our diversified urban-centric portfolio… and lean operating model… allow us to stay resilient on both our top and bottom line performance.” — Leslie D. Hale .
  • Outlook and guidance rationale: “Fundamentals have moderated… uncertainty persists… we are adjusting our full year guidance to reflect our current outlook.” — Leslie D. Hale .
  • Cost and margin discipline: “Total hotel operating cost growth was only 2.9%… margin performance… only 124 bps lower YoY.” — Sean Mahoney .
  • Capital actions: “Entered into a new $300 million term loan… used excess proceeds to fully repay $100 million on our line of credit.” — Sean Mahoney .
  • Asset recycling: “Sold a noncore asset at an attractive 18x multiple and redeployed proceeds into accretive share repurchases.” — Leslie D. Hale .

Q&A Highlights

  • Near-term trends: March RevPAR -1.3%; April prelim -1% to -2%; rate integrity held (+1% in March) despite softer demand .
  • Financing markets: Bank market supportive; high yield costs ~50–75 bps wider vs earlier in year; CMBS functioning but more fickle amid uncertainty .
  • Group dynamics: FY group pace ~102% with ~77% on the books; F&B spend healthy, attrition collected, improving F&B margin by ~250 bps .
  • Tariff exposure: FF&E ~40% of renovation costs; only ~10% sourced from China vs ~40% pre-COVID; mitigated via diversification .
  • Transactions: Market in “pause/wait-and-see” for assets not under contract; buybacks prioritized in current backdrop .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 beat on both revenue and EPS: Revenue $328.3M vs $327.3M consensus; GAAP EPS -$0.015 vs -$0.046 consensus; estimate counts: revenue (8), EPS (5). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Implications: Expect modest downward revisions to FY RevPAR/EBITDA/FFO following guidance reset; however, conversion outperformance and urban strength may support out-of-room revenue and margin stability into H2 if macro stabilizes .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance reset reflects macro caution and shorter booking windows; second quarter likely weakest, with back half expected roughly flat on RevPAR absent macro improvement .
  • Urban-centric exposure and conversions are outperforming, providing relative resilience; SF/Northern CA trajectory improving with citywide and AI-led corporate events .
  • Balance sheet flexibility is strong: maturities extended to 2030, revolver repaid, $0.85B liquidity; ~75% of debt fixed/hedged, weighted avg rate ~4.5% .
  • Capital returns are active and leverage-neutral via recycling: $24.3M YTD buybacks and a new $250M authorization provide downside support in volatile markets .
  • Expect analysts to lower FY EBITDA/FFO targets inline with the updated ranges; watch for any stabilization in government and international segments and booking window normalization .
  • Near-term trading: The guide-down is a negative catalyst; potential offsets include continued conversion ramp and urban demand strength; volatility likely around monthly demand reads (Mar/Apr softness) .
  • Medium-term thesis: Urban demand tailwinds, constrained new supply, and revenue management discipline underpin rate integrity; RLJ’s portfolio/operating model should compound value as macro clarity improves .

Additional Q1 2025 items: Quarterly dividend declared ($0.15 common; $0.4875 preferred) and CFO retirement announced (May transition), both communicated during the period .